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Title: Higher Rates Create Opportunity & Improve Investment Flexibility ( ... Still No Recession) - Adobe PDF(size: 645189k)
Date Posted: 10/31/2023
Title: Doomsayers Go 0 For 4, GDP Remains Healthy, Stocks Rise, But Mild Recession Seems Likely - Adobe PDF(size: 1603683k)
Date Posted: 07/25/2023
Title: The Most Anticipated Recession, Ever - Adobe PDF(size: 1353691k)
Date Posted: 04/14/2023
Title: LEI Suggests Recession, But ... - Adobe PDF(size: 950821k)
Date Posted: 01/24/2023
Title: So, Where is the U.S. Economy? - Adobe PDF(size: 7701199k)
Date Posted: 10/24/2022
Title: Too Hot Economy Creates Recession Potential - Adobe PDF(size: 957072k)
Date Posted: 07/26/2022
Title: Economy "To Flourish" in Face of Rising Rates - Adobe PDF(size: 1100333k)
Date Posted: 04/25/2022
Title: Markets Recalibrate to Inflation & The Fed - Adobe PDF(size: 787026k)
Date Posted: 01/26/2022
Title: Crosswinds From All Directions - Adobe PDF(size: 1274238k)
Date Posted: 10/27/2021
Title: Equities Attractive, But Risks Exist - Adobe PDF(size: 506418k)
Date Posted: 07/14/2021
Title: Pandemic Countermeasures Dominate - Adobe PDF(size: 581507k)
Date Posted: 04/25/2021
Title: Equities Overvalued As Pandemic Intensifies - Adobe PDF(size: 822588k)
Date Posted: 01/26/2021
Title: Covid-19 Tracker - Adobe PDF(size: 735619k)
Date Posted: 10/19/2020
Title: The Election, Recovery, Fed & Pandemic - Adobe PDF(size: 623786k)
Date Posted: 10/19/2020
Title: Investors Wonder - Why Have Equity Values Rebounded So Heartily? - Adobe PDF(size: 4639479k)
Date Posted: 08/05/2020
Title: COVID-19 Relief Guide - Adobe PDF(size: 897782k)
Date Posted: 04/14/2020
Title: Economic Shutdown - Perspective - Adobe PDF(size: 393063k)
Date Posted: 04/14/2020
Title: Recession Risk Still Does Not Appear Elevated - Adobe PDF(size: 498248k)
Date Posted: 01/29/2020
Title: Recession Risk Does Not Appear to be Unusually High - Adobe PDF(size: 1100705k)
Date Posted: 10/29/2019
Comments: The recent yield-curve inversion may have been a false signal
Title: Still No Hint of Recession (and tips to ensure you don't overreport gains or underreport losses) - Adobe PDF(size: 680860k)
Date Posted: 07/28/2019
Comments: The global economy continues to slow, but the Fed seems set to stimulate growth and the IMF sees a rebound for 2020.
Title: Global Growth Decelerates to Sustainable Maximum - Adobe PDF(size: 530271k)
Date Posted: 04/26/2019
Title: Recession Imminent? - Adobe PDF(size: 541205k)
Date Posted: 01/22/2019
Comments: Maybe not yet ...
Title: A Healthy Economy Amid Trade Tensions - Adobe PDF(size: 870643k)
Date Posted: 04/01/2018
Comments: Unemployment remains low, but inflation is still in check as the Leading Economic Index surges and the Fed lifts its outlook.
Title: Reduce Mail Clutter - Adobe PDF(size: 55520k)
Date Posted: 01/22/2018
Title: The Outlook - Still Healthy - Adobe PDF(size: 470142k)
Date Posted: 01/22/2018
Title: Good Data & A Bit About Disaster Economics - Adobe PDF(size: 395940k)
Date Posted: 10/20/2017
Comments: Investors tend to fret whenever equity valuations reach new highs. While it has become fashionable to characterize the U.S. economy as limping along, a more objective analysis suggests that's an understatement of the facts. Other important economies continue to make good progress, too. Pundits often regard natural disasters as economic catalysts. While there's some truth to that view, it's important to remember that while the localized economic activity that tends to come to fruition after a given disaster is fairly obvious, those gains tend to come at the expense of the destruction of billions of dollars' worth of wealth that must now be replaced as well as less noticeable losses elsewhere in the economy.
Title: Politics & Business — Non-Overlapping Magisteria? - Adobe PDF(size: 533387k)
Date Posted: 07/05/2017
Comments: As political headlines reach an almost-apocalyptic pitch, fundamental economic and business metrics look better than they have in a long time. What gives?
Title: Optimism Amid Solid U.S. Fundamentals - Adobe PDF(size: 6768326k)
Date Posted: 04/20/2017
Title: The Trump Effect & The Investment Climate for 2017 - Adobe PDF(size: 412551k)
Date Posted: 01/10/2017
Title: Odds & Ends About Things Other Than The Election - Adobe PDF(size: 669724k)
Date Posted: 10/18/2016
Title: Brexit - An Unknown of Diminishing Importance - Adobe PDF(size: 534018k)
Date Posted: 07/18/2016
Title: A Rant - Ethics in the Financial Services Induistry - Adobe PDF(size: 52156k)
Date Posted: 04/01/2016
Title: My Take on the Sour Mood & Market Volatility - Adobe PDF(size: 539379k)
Date Posted: 01/10/2016
Title: Legitimate Concern & Some Perspective - Adobe PDF(size: 223525k)
Date Posted: 10/10/2015
Comments: Investors are unnerved by a slow-down in hiring, a looming rate-hike, and a slowing of international economies, but jumping out of equities may not be the answer.
Title: NYSE, Puerto Rico, China, Greece, & Not Fighting the Fed - Adobe PDF(size: 483252k)
Date Posted: 07/01/2015
Comments: The NYSE's outage was mostly a non-event and Puerto Rico's default is a non-issue for us because our debt is insured. China's stock bubble is a sign of growing pains, but due to China's size, the negative impact is likely to be felt elsewhere. A Greek default wouldn't impact the rest of the world too much, but it's banking contagion could if a deal is not reached that would result in it staying in the Eurozone. A 48-year study highlights some very interesting associations between Fed policy and the returns on various types of assets.
Title: U.S. Expansion Sags & Lower Speed Limits for the World - Adobe PDF(size: 3278150k)
Date Posted: 04/20/2015
Title: Outlook Still Seems Ok & The Case for Lower-Risk Equities - Adobe PDF(size: 802714k)
Date Posted: 01/01/2015
Title: U.S. Marching Along Amid Slowing World Growth - Adobe PDF(size: 466197k)
Date Posted: 10/10/2014
Title: The Case for Caution - Adobe PDF(size: 726853k)
Date Posted: 07/01/2014
Title: The World is Becoming a Better Place - Adobe PDF(size: 476938k)
Date Posted: 01/01/2014
Comments: Humanity's relentless quest to improve its circumstances has resulted in a world that has and continues to become a (much) better place.
Title: The Shutdown, The Ceiling, & Future Fed Policy - Adobe PDF(size: 216167k)
Date Posted: 10/01/2013
Comments: The government shutdown is probably no big deal, the debt ceiling could be a big deal if it's not addressed, and future Fed unwinding will be a big deal.
Title: Investors Struggle with Positive News - Adobe PDF(size: 235423k)
Date Posted: 07/01/2013
Comments: Like a recovering addict who's afraid he'll relapse without methadone injections, investors have become addicted to stimulus from the Federal Reserve.
Title: Pleased, but Nervous ... - Adobe PDF(size: 314003k)
Date Posted: 04/01/2013
Comments: Recent stock market gains have put a smile on people's faces, but corporate earnings growth continues to slow , analysts following individual companies are lowering the majority of their buy/sell opinions, and the U.S.' debt issue will be much more difficult to solve even though the U.S. had a much higher level of relative debt at the close of World War II.
Title: Still a Fan of Stocks for The Long Haul, But ... - Adobe PDF(size: 557350k)
Date Posted: 01/01/2013
Title: QE3 Not a Fix for Fiscal Issues & a Couple Other Tidbits - Adobe PDF(size: 682290k)
Date Posted: 10/01/2012
Comments: The Fed embarks on a third round of economic stimulation since the financial collapse of 2008/9, but recognizes that the fiscal situation is in dire need of fixing ... plus a few words on the benefits of dividend investing and the state of various emerging markets.
Title: Dividends Attractive in Midst of Many Unsettled Issues - Adobe PDF(size: 271008k)
Date Posted: 06/30/2012
Comments: The fiscal cliff threatens the U.S. economy and plenty of conflict around the world help established, dividend-paying companies attractive
Title: U.S. Still Marching Along - Europe Still Under Stress - Adobe PDF(size: 842202k)
Date Posted: 04/03/2012
Comments: Economists at the The Conference Board and the International Monetary Fund see continued economic growth - especially in the emerging markets. Despite stocks recent run, Europe still faces stress.
Title: Selected Nuggets from Zacks, Value Line and S&P - Adobe PDF(size: 534616k)
Date Posted: 01/06/2012
Title: Why Italy Matters - Adobe PDF(size: 89425k)
Date Posted: 11/14/2011
Comments: After bond yields on debt issued by Greece, Ireland, and Portugal spiked to signal investor discomfort, each country needed a financial life line. Now that the credit markets have begun to shun Italian debt, Europe's debt problem is starting to look like an algae bloom
Title: Still Playing A Little Defense - Adobe PDF(size: 1225463k)
Date Posted: 10/01/2011
Comments: Concerns about Europe are weighing in on investor confidence. Is another recession looming, or is it time to buy equities?
Title: Solid Market Fundamentals ... Crucial Inflection Points - Adobe PDF(size: 545242k)
Date Posted: 07/01/2011
Comments: Corporate earnings are strong, balance sheets are in good shape, and the interest rate environment is likely to remain supportive, but debt and deficit problems here and abroad have investors spooked.
Title: Trouble Everywhere ... amid Rising Markets? - Adobe PDF(size: 663561k)
Date Posted: 04/01/2011
Comments: Why would equity prices be advancing amid the unrest in the Middle East and the twin disasters in Japan? And, what about the major defaults that were predicted by for the municipal bond market by Meredith Whitney on 60 Minutes in December of 2010?
Title: Understanding the Characteristics of Your Portfolio - Adobe PDF(size: 846425k)
Date Posted: 01/01/2011
Comments: Traditional brokerage statements provide misleading pie charts and asset allocation percentages. Therefore, we use software that sees deep into the portfolios we manage and we sometimes share that analysis with our clients.
Title: Macroeconomic Quicktakes - Adobe PDF(size: 471100k)
Date Posted: 04/01/2010
Comments: Economic recovery is well upon us, but federal debt levels are worrisome, the housing market is still fragile, and the commercial real estate market has deteriorated markedly.
Title: Macroeconomic Quicktakes - Adobe PDF(size: 274273k)
Date Posted: 01/01/2010
Comments: Don't fight the Fed! Put Fed policy at your back. Looking for opportunity? Follow the cash...
Title: Recession may be over ... may not matter - Adobe PDF(size: 316374k)
Date Posted: 09/29/2009
Title: Inflation Around Corner? - Adobe PDF(size: 126387k)
Date Posted: 06/30/2009
Comments: Maybe not...
Title: Macroeconomic Quickpoints - Adobe PDF(size: 164089k)
Date Posted: 04/17/2009
Title: Near Death Experience - Adobe PDF(size: 102385k)
Date Posted: 04/06/2009
Title: Revenge of the Quiet Advisor - Adobe PDF(size: 149411k)
Date Posted: 01/08/2009
Comments: A light-hearted review of a series off-the-mark predictions.
Title: Another Great Depression? - Adobe PDF(size: 99263k)
Date Posted: 10/19/2008
Comments: The Great Depression began in earnest in October of 1929. By 1933, unemployment rates spiked to 25%, incomes plunged, construction stopped, thousands of banks failed and people suffered for years. The seriousness of the current economic situation invites comparisons to 1929. How a government responds to an economic crisis is vitally important. Generally, that response comes in the form of monetary and fiscal policy. Let’s hit the highpoints.
Title: Moral Hazard - The Root of the Problem - Adobe PDF(size: 106705k)
Date Posted: 10/19/2008
Comments: As the global markets grapple with the notion that the U.S. financial malaise has spread to Europe and Asia, contagion ripples across the globe. Financial assets are now clearly out of favor as panic-stricken investors race one another to flee the capital markets.